Work and teams
Run a decision pre-mortem
Ask an AI council to imagine a failed plan, identify plausible causes, and convert them into mitigations and stop rules.
The basic idea
A pre-mortem temporarily assumes the plan failed and works backward. Multiple models are useful because failure modes are often distributed across operational, financial, human, legal, and reputational dimensions.
Before launching a product, ask why adoption, reliability, unit economics, compliance, or customer trust might fail despite an initially promising plan.
How to do it
- 1
Describe the plan, objective, deadline, and assumptions.
- 2
Assign critics to different failure domains rather than asking every model for the same generic risk list.
- 3
Require each risk to include an early warning sign, likelihood rationale, impact, and mitigation.
- 4
Ask the chair to distinguish launch blockers from risks that can be monitored after launch.
What to watch for
- Do not count imaginative scenarios as evidence that failure is likely.
- Avoid a risk list so long that priorities disappear.
- Assign a human owner and monitoring trigger to material mitigations.
What a useful result looks like
A pre-mortem should produce a shorter, prioritized risk register and concrete signals for changing or stopping the plan.